A rate cut or dovish liquidity signals could weaken the rupee and push USD/INR back through 90. Softer yields show bond markets leaning dovish, though growth data complicates the case for immediate easing.
The USD/CAD pair trades in a tight range around 1.3950 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair wobbles inside Thursday’s trading range as investors await the Canadian labour market data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
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The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday and recovers a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the 1.1680 region, or the highest level since October 17.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds steady during the Asian session on Friday and reacts little to the unimpressive data, which showed that Japan's Household Spending unexpectedly fell at the fastest pace in nearly two years in October.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $59.45 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI declines amid an increase in US crude oil stockpiles, signaling excess supply.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold its cash rate at 3.60% at its December next week and keep it steady through 2026, according to the latest Reuters poll.
The sharp miss underscores fragile consumer demand and may temper expectations for sustained BOJ tightening. While a December hike remains the base case, markets may pare back longer-term rate forecasts, supporting JGBs and weighing slightly on yen optimism.
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0749 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0733 and 7.0751 Reuters estimate.
The RBI’s tolerance for a weaker rupee signals reduced intervention risk and greater FX flexibility, but rising outflows and oil-driven import costs keep depreciation pressures alive. Equity inflows may stay cautious until external balances stabilise or clarity emerges on India-US trade and index-inclusion prospects. Softer US yields could provide limited relief.
The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5765 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday, pressured by the rebound in the US Dollar (USD). Nonetheless, the potential downside for the pair might be limited amid rising bets for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week.
The AUD/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Friday and oscillates in a range around the 0.6600 round figure, just below a nearly two-month high, touched the previous day.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that interest rates are shaped by “various factors” and reiterated that the government will closely monitor market developments, pursue appropriate debt-management policies, and craft budgets with fiscal sustainability in mind.
The comments reinforce a steady policy backdrop ahead of a potential BOJ rate shift. Affirming BOJ autonomy reduces fears of political pressure, while the focus on fiscal sustainability helps anchor JGB markets, though vigilance toward yields and yen volatility remains key.
A unanimous hold signal reinforces stability in short-end pricing, but the shift toward a long pause — and rising chatter about possible hikes — may lend support to AUD and keep front-end yields firm. Markets will watch the December statement closely for any tightening bias as inflation pressures remain elevated.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,205 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. Rising US Treasury yields and upbeat US jobs data cap upside for the precious metal. Traders might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key US inflation data.
The resurgence of shadow lending underscores persistent stress in China’s local-government finances and weak infrastructure spending — a drag on growth-sensitive assets. The trend signals higher credit risk in LGFV-linked markets and may limit Beijing’s ability to stimulate without widening fiscal strain. Investors may interpret this as medium-term negative for China credit, construction supply chains, and commodity demand.
Renewed wage pressure strengthens the narrative that Japan’s labour market is providing the “initial momentum” Governor Ueda says is necessary for sustainable inflation. Robust union demands into shuntō raise the probability of a December BOJ rate hike, supporting yen upside at the margin while keeping upward pressure on JGB yields. Markets will track how widely these wage requests are adopted across sectors.
The steep decline in household spending highlights the disconnect between rising wages and consumer behaviour, potentially limiting the BOJ’s confidence in near-term demand-driven inflation. Yen traders may see the release as modestly dovish for December, though broader policy expectations still hinge on wage momentum and next week’s inflation data.
GBP/USD flubbed a technical run at the 1.3350 handle on Wednesday, falling back below the key technical level and trimming some of the ground gained during a strong rebound earlier in the week.
The USD/JPY pair remains weak near 155.05 during the early Asian session on Friday. Rising bets for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next week and weaker US economic data weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Government backing removes a key hurdle for the BOJ’s December hike and reduces near-term policy risk. But without clarity on the eventual neutral rate, long-end JGBs remain vulnerable and yen volatility stays elevated. Forward guidance at the December meeting will be crucial for FX and rates positioning.
Euro retreats somewhat on Thursday as traders digest the last round of US jobs data as they also brace for the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1649, down 0.19%.
USTR Greer said the U.S. wants a stable but smaller and more balanced trade relationship with China, highlighting a 25% decline in the U.S. goods deficit as progress. He also warned of problems within the USMCA and stressed the need to prevent Mexico and Canada from being used as export hubs for Asian producers.
JPMorgan says bitcoin could reach $170k if it trades like gold, but the bank’s analysis shows the real swing factor is Strategy’s ability to avoid selling bitcoin and remain in MSCI indices. With $1.4bn in fresh cash and mNAV still above 1, forced liquidation looks less likely. A positive MSCI ruling would lift both Strategy and bitcoin sharply.
CNBC entered into a partnership with prediction-market operator Kalshi to integrate its event-odds data across the network’s television, digital and subscription products starting next year.
Gold (XAU/USD) registers modest gains on Thursday, even though the latest US jobs data indicates that the labor market remains resilient, though signs of cooling are emerging.
The US Dollar (USD) struggled for direction amid the ongoing and intense bearish trend in place since late November. Rising bets for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week and discouraging data have been keeping the Greenback under scrutiny as of late, fuelling its downside momentum.
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FTMO, a global proprietary trading firm, has officially declared today that it is now available to traders in India. The announcement was shared on social media platform X by FTMO today (Thursday).
The EURUSD has the low of a swing area at 1.1645. The 100 day MA is also in play at that level. Key level today and going forward for the buyers and sellers.
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